B. Design of wind park alternatives and calculation of its annual energy yield (various scenarios).

For these calculations the wind atlas model and the related WAsP and WindPro Programme were used. Within these calculations also a sensitivity analysis concerning a well-suited type of wind turbine for the site in question was undertaken. The wind park calculations were then based on the identified turbine. The evaluation of the wind potential was based on measured data from 10 m height, which had been collected intermittently by MME during the past 2 years. In addition, long term meteorological data of the past 20 years as provided by the Namibian Weather Bureau and the South African Weather Bureau were also considered.

The resulting wind potential in 50m height is characterized as follows:

Site	Annual Average Wind Speed m/s	Energy Density kWh/m²/a	Weibull Parameters a, k
Walvis Bay Saltworks	6.8	3047	A=7.73 k=2.17
Lüderitz Golf Course	7.5	4936	A=8.4 k=1.70

Wind Park Alternatives

Environmental Impact Assessment

In the course of the study the possible dangers of a wind park to flora and fauna as well as effects due to noise and shadow flicker on nearby human settlements has been looked at. Initially, the sites selected by MME included 2 areas. Based on a site visit and the data evaluation, 2 more areas were investigated According to the data available it could be concluded that environmental problems can be minimized and are acceptable. All considered sites in Lüderitz are several kilometers away from any human settlements, so that noise emissions would not be problematic. The effect of shadow flicker should be calculated during an EIA but is not expected to lead to any problems. 

As far as the wildlife is concerned, there is a possible danger through wind parks to migratory and resident birds in certain areas as identified in a study undertaken by the Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MET). Therefore, only those 3 of the 4 sites which are situated outside the danger areas were further investigated. In Walvis Bay the situation was especially problematic. 

Potential Electricity Generation 

The current network configuration would allow up to 20 MW as the largest possible wind park size. An intermediate size of about 10 MW and a small size of about 2,5 MW (size of minimum load in local network) were included in the analysis. From the available wind data, representative time series of wind speed and direction were processed and read as library files into the WASP model via the WindPro software. 

Based on the results of the assessment of the wind energy potential combined with the specific cost of different WEC types and sizes, a specific wind energy converter with a 600 kW induction generator was identified as the most appropriate choice for the calculation of the potential electricity generation for 3 different sites as given in the table below. 

Annual Potential Wind Energy Generation at Lüderitz 

		Area 2: Golfcourse		Area 3: Reservoir		Area: 4 Große Bucht
No. WEC x 600 kW	Total MW	Production MWh/year	Capacity Factor	Production MWh/year	Capacity Factor	Production MWh/year	Capacity Factor
4	2.4	6441	32%	7416	37%	-	-
16	9.6	25267	32%	27019	34%	-	-
32	19.2	-	-	-	-	54379	34%

Economic and Financial Analysis

The investment costs and expenditures on O+M for these sites and system configurations are given in the following table. Cost Overview of Selected Wind Parks in Lüderitz (March 1999) (6 N$ = 1 US$)

Site	MW	Annual  Prod. (MWh)	Turbine (N$)	66 kV Connection (N$)	Road (N$)	Annual O+M (N$)	Total Investment Costs (N$)
Golf Course	2.4	6,441	16,856,722	2,021,600	627,200	337,135	19,505,522
Golf Course	9.6	25,267	61,106,695	2,861,600	2,352,000	1,222,134	66,320,295
Reservoir	2.4	7,416	16,856,722	2,111,200	672,000	337,135	19,639,922
Reservoir	9.6	27,019	61,106,695	2,954,000	3,360,000	1,222,134	67,420,695
Grosse Bucht	19.2	54,379	113,957,007	6,076,000	7,840,000	2,279,140	127,873,007

In a first step, the costs of electricity generated by wind farms were compared with the actual electricity costs under status quo conditions. The economic analysis evaluated the utilization of wind energy for electricity generation from the country’s point of view, assuming that Namibia continues to rely on imports from the RSA as per purchase agreement of 1996. This assumption was changed in the sensitivity analysis, taking into account alternative supply options and a different policy environment (e.g. greater degree of energy self-sufficiency). 

In the financial analysis, the key assumption was that the benefits of wind energy are measured in terms of avoided costs of bulk energy supplies from NamPower, valued in terms of the currently prevailing wholesale tariffs, adjusted upwards by 12% to account for the pending increase in tariffs. The forecast horizon (project lifetime) covers the period 2000 - 2020, with the pay-back period starting in 2001. Payments, i.e., cash in- and/or outflows, are due at the beginning of each year, expressed in N$ at constant prices of 1999. The above costs were then translated into “Long Run Marginal Costs”, indicating the generation costs of wind power during the lifetime of the wind park: 

LRMC of Selected Wind Parks (N$/MWh)

Wind Park Lüderitz	10% Discount Rate	6% Discount Rate
Golf Course 2.4 MW	408.05	295.34
Golf Course 9.6 MW	356.67	259.00
Reservoir 2.4 MW	356.53	257.97
Reservoir 9.6 MW	338.33	245.46
Grosse Bucht 19.2 MW	318.12	230.60

However, when comparing these costs with the economic benefits of wind energy according to the avoided costs of electricity imports ranging from 32 N$/MWh to 74.5 N$/MWh (including line losses), depending on the spot price of the South African Power Pool, it is obvious that no wind park will be economically viable, and even the financial analysis adds little to this because it is based on the same assumptions as the economic analysis, except for the financial value attached to wind energy, which is 90 N$/MWh (the rate NamPower is assumed to charge for wholesale energy supplies). 

In a sensitivity analysis it was therefore investigated how the given parameters have to be changed in order to achieve the financial viability of the wind park. Even by taking into account increasing electricity tariffs due to new power generating facilities such as the Kudu Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant, there is still a considerable amount of grant financing or other financial support required to make a wind park at Lüderitz commercially viable. The following table presents these mutually exclusive options as there are: 

Alternative Break-Even Requirements for Wind Parks in Lüderitz 

Site	Investment Costs N$ million	Required Capital Grant (N$ million)	Or Required Wind  Energy Levy (Ncents/kWh)	Present Value of CO2 Bonus  (N$ million)
G. Course 2.4 MW	19.5	11.7	0.06	5.4
G. Course 9.6 MW	66.3	34.4	0.18	21.2
Reservoir 2.4 MW	19.6	10.0	0.05	6.2
Reservoir 9.6 MW	67.4	32.4	0.17	22.7
G. Bucht 19.2 MW	127.9	55.3	0.28	45.5

The above figures indicate that an assumed CO2 bonus of N$ 100 per ton of avoided CO2 would warrant the support schemes to a large extent, but sources for grant financing have still to be found. As a result of the workshop held in March, all Namibian stakeholders gave their firm commitments to further pursue the wind energy option, provided that the international donor community would make available the additional financial support required to make the project economically and financially viable.